PERSPEC 2026-SUGAR/CEPEA: Higher supply and more moderate prices should mark the 26/27 harvest

Cepea, 12/30/2025 – The global sugar market is moving towards a scenario of looser supply throughout the 2026/27 harvest. In Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter, the expectation is for an advance in sugarcane crushing in the Center-South region, supported by the recovery of rainfall at the end of 2025, moderate expansion of the area and weather conditions closer to the historical average. Production may exceed 620 million tons of sugarcane, which expands the potential supply of the sweetener, even though agricultural yield depends on rainfall in the summer. According to Cepea researchers, the increase in crushing does not guarantee, however, a strong increase in sugar production. With a global environment projecting a high surplus and good availability in the main players – such as Brazil, India and Thailand – the sector tends to calibrate the mix between sugar and ethanol. The mandatory blend of 30% anhydrous ethanol in gasoline and the advance in the production of corn ethanol reinforce the strategic role in determining the production mix. Estimates indicate Brazilian production of the sweetener between 41 and 44 million tons, up from 39.17 million tons in the current 2025/26 season (until November 16), according to data from Unica. In the international market, the predominant outlook is for moderate prices, reflecting more comfortable inventories, a global surplus and competition among exporters. Adverse weather events, Indian export policies and oil swings remain key factors for possible upward movements. World consumption is expected to maintain a gradual growth trajectory of 1.2% per year, driven by emerging economies in Asia and Africa, while developed countries tend to reduce per capita consumption due to changes in habits and partial replacement by alternative sweeteners.

Source: Cepea (www.cepea.esalq.usp.br)