COFFEE/CEPEA: Rains hinder Arabica harvest

Cepea, July 1, 2026 – The coffee market was strongly influenced by the atypical volume of rainfall recorded in Brazil's main Arabica-producing regions in June, according to Cepea researchers.

Historically, this month is characterized by very limited precipitation; however, in 2026, volumes were significant in key producing areas, hindering the progress of the 2026/27 harvest.

According to Cepea researchers, in addition to knocking beans off the trees, the rains make drying on patios unfeasible and promote mold growth on both fallen beans and those still on the plant, raising significant concerns regarding the quality of the batches.

Overall, reports from market agents consulted by Cepea indicate concern over current weather conditions, as excessive rainfall during this period can trigger premature flowering in coffee groves; this, in turn, could disrupt the crop scheduled for harvest in Brazil mid-next year. Furthermore, global coffee stocks remain tight, and there is heavy reliance on Brazilian production to boost worldwide Arabica stock levels.

Source: Cepea (www.cepea.esalq.usp.br)