PERSPEC 2026-CAFÉ/CEPEA: Positive expectation for the 26/27 Brazilian harvest should keep prices fluctuating in 2026

Cepea, 12/30/2025 – The year 2026 should once again be marked by high volatility in coffee prices. Cepea researchers indicate that, with the beginning of the year still characterized by tight stocks, even with the Vietnam harvest in progress, the lower global availability of coffee tends to keep prices at higher levels, a scenario similar to that observed in much of the second half of 2025. Although there are signs of a slowdown in domestic and international demand, the supply restriction should continue to exert a relevant influence on quotations. According to Cepea researchers, this price support tends to remain until there is greater clarity about the filling of grains and the performance of the last third of the Brazilian harvest. Only from this advance will it be possible to carry out more consistent analyses of the supply and demand frameworks and, consequently, of price formation. In Brazil, the development of the 2026/27 harvest, whose harvest should start mostly after May 2026, has been taking place under more favorable weather conditions than those recorded in previous years, according to Cepea researchers. This climatic environment brings expectations of recovery of the coffee park, which for about five harvests has been affected by climatic adversities that compromised production. In addition, the 2026/27 harvest is characterized by a positive biennial, which, combined with the more favorable weather, reinforces the optimism of producers. The first projections released by consultancies indicate a production of more than 70 million bags, reflecting both the recovery of arabica and the good performance of robusta. As for exports, the 2025/26 harvest should register a lower exported volume than that observed in previous seasons, due to the lower supply and the reduction in the availability of coffee for commercialization.

Source: Cepea (www.cepea.esalq.usp.br)