PERSPEC 2026-FRANGO/CEPEA: Sector projects new progress in 2026; Health risk remains on the radar

Cepea, 01/02/2026 – Cepea researchers point out that the Brazilian poultry industry should maintain a growth trajectory in 2026, supported by the advance of exports, the supply adjusted to domestic and foreign demands, and favorable margins for producers. This scenario, however, depends on the absence of new outbreaks of Avian Influenza, especially during the critical period of the migratory flow of birds. ABPA estimates the per capita consumption of chicken meat at 47.3 kg in 2026, an increase of 1.2% compared to 2025. Agents consulted by Cepea point out that the exemption from income tax for salaries up to R$ 5 thousand should contribute to sustain domestic demand. Brazil accounts for about a third of the chicken meat exported globally and maintained its leadership even in the face of occasional restrictions caused by avian flu. Cepea projections point to an increase of 2.4% in shipments in 2026 and production of 14.73 million tons, an increase of 3.8% over 2025. The achievement of this performance requires strict sanitary control, since any outbreaks on farms can result in immediate barriers from importers – as occurred in May/25. Cepea highlights the need for continuous monitoring of the H5N1 virus, considering recent outbreaks in Europe, the United States and Japan, driven by bird migration. The critical period coincides with the arrival of migratory birds, between May and July. Despite the alert, the Brazilian sector has a high level of biosecurity and technical and commercial capacity to respond to possible occurrences, as demonstrated in 2025.

Source: Cepea (www.cepea.esalq.usp.br)